A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two essays that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
