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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward script. It commonly acts as a type of mea culpa. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who oversaw the biggest improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring superior leadership or merely the greatest shock.

However the current race is fundamentally different. The group of contenders is exceptionally strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division champions declining and longtime also-rans ascending together. In an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against five other outstanding candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot should look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal environment, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his special talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained dominance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – rebuilding the trenches, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the building with the level of hype he did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

During a normal year, he would be the runaway choice. But this isn't a normal year!

The area where his case comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the team would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But Johnson falls short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has mastered the off-field stuff, which was not a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw coaching staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an early hot start, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive plays and started seeking consistent ones. The coach recentered the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have ended the season in October. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has fallen away since that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, placing him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still